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There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the c
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the c
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the c
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the c
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the c
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the c
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Edgar Fiedler:
If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle.Edgar Fiedler:
To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown inEdgar Fiedler:
Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the eEdgar Fiedler:
Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same foEdgar Fiedler:
At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a mEdgar Fiedler:
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue thatEdgar Fiedler:
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; yEdgar Fiedler:
For a politician, the long term is between now and the next election.Edgar Fiedler:
The public hasn't learned that businesses don't pay taxes: only people do. They're confused, and thEdgar Fiedler:
We're not very good at forecasting, and we don't know how to measure the impact of economic policy.