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For economist the real world is often a special case.
For economist the real world is often a special case.
For economist the real world is often a special case.
For economist the real world is often a special case.
For economist the real world is often a special case.
For economist the real world is often a special case.
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Edgar Fiedler:
If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model.Edgar Fiedler:
Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet itEdgar Fiedler:
The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.Edgar Fiedler:
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the cEdgar Fiedler:
If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle.Edgar Fiedler:
To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown inEdgar Fiedler:
Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the eEdgar Fiedler:
Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same foEdgar Fiedler:
At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a mEdgar Fiedler:
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that