Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard.

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• Edgar Fiedler:

  He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.

• Edgar Fiedler:

  The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.

• Edgar Fiedler:

  If you have to forecast, forecast often.

• Edgar Fiedler:

  For economist the real world is often a special case.

• Edgar Fiedler:

  If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model.

• Edgar Fiedler:

  Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet it

• Edgar Fiedler:

  The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.

• Edgar Fiedler:

  There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the c

• Edgar Fiedler:

  If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle.

• Edgar Fiedler:

  To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown in